India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to expand by 9.2 per cent in the current financial year, according to the Economic Survey 2021-22 tabled in the parliament on Monday. "Advance estimates suggest that the Indian economy is expected to witness real GDP expansion of 9.2 per cent in 2021-22 after contracting in 2020-21. "This implies that overall economic activity has recovered past the pre-pandemic levels," Economic Survey noted. Almost all indicators show that the economic impact of the "second wave" in Q1 was much smaller than that experienced during the full lockdown phase in 2020-21 even though the health impact was more severe, it said.
The most striking features of this Budget was its focus on simplification and improving the ease of doing business in India, asserts Kaku Nakhate.
While the capital spending is being maintained at 3.1 per cent of the GDP, a little more would have boosted economic growth even further, suggests Rajiv Memani.
Following are the highlights of the Economic Survey 2022-23 tabled in Parliament on Tuesday
'This is going to generate a new debate on reservation because the quota for Economically Weaker Sections is 10%, and that is for nearly 16% of the population.' 'For 16% you are giving 10%. This is set to raise eyebrows among the OBCs after the caste survey.'
Ahead of the assembly polls in Rajasthan, the Congress government on Saturday night issued an order for the conduct of a caste survey in the state.
One could argue that India is not troubled in the same way as China is by a declining population and structural problems in real estate/construction and finance. But India has serious trade and fiscal imbalances, and excessive dependence on capital expenditure by the government, points out T N Ninan.
'There were deep discussions within the Sangh Parivar before this decision was made.' 'They were convinced, and only then did the Modi government proceed with the caste census.'
Data 'of the people, by the people, for the people' must become govt's mantra, says Survey.
Geopolitical tensions, trade policy uncertainties, volatility in international commodity prices and financial market uncertainties pose considerable risks to India's economic growth in the coming year, the finance ministry cautioned on Wednesday. "Global trade continues to be affected by uncertainty in the policy environment... tariff-related developments in multiple countries have heightened trade-related risks, affecting investment and trade flows globally.
According to the survey report, the government's move to earmark Rs 76,000 crore outlay for semiconductors and display manufacturing segment will aid their production in the country. The survey said that government intervention to boost semiconductors and display manufacturing ecosystem in the country has come at a time when the global economy is facing acute shortage of semiconductors due to severe disruptions in supply chains.
India's manufacturing sector growth fell to a joint 11-month low of 56.5 in November, restricted by competitive conditions and inflationary pressures amid a softer increase in factory orders, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from 57.5 in October to 56.5 in November, signalling a softer improvement in the health of the sector. However, the pace of growth remained above its long-run average.
Could the MPCE survey results be used as a basis of reconstructing the Consumer Price Index with new weights, asks Madan Sabnavis.
The World Bank on Tuesday raised the growth forecast for the Indian economy to 7 per cent for the current fiscal year on the back of recovery in agri sector and rural demand. World Bank had in June projected India to grow at 6.6 per cent for FY24. According to the World Bank Report released on Tuesday, India's growth continues to be strong despite a challenging global environment.
South Indian filmmakers have kept their focus on the single-screen cinemagoer. They have kept their finger on the pulse of the single-screen cinema fan, who goes to movies once a month or more, to forget his weekly chores, explains Ambi Parameswaran.
The pre-Budget Survey said for wealth to be distributed, it first has to be created and called for looking at wealth creators with respect. The Survey said government interventions seem to be ineffective in stabilising prices of commodities such as onions.
The BJP's surprise announcement of a caste census in the next census has sparked political debate, particularly in Bihar where the issue of backward empowerment holds significant electoral weight. The move is seen as a strategic maneuver by the ruling party to counter opposition efforts to mobilize support among disadvantaged sections of society. The decision is also viewed as a recognition of the growing influence of OBC politics in India.
'It has the potential to sow seeds of furthering discord when the direction of the discourse is aimed at propagating the perceived supremacy of 'cultural nationalism' from a distant past over the prevailing dominance of 'Constitutional nationalism',' argues N Sathiya Moorthy.
As per the survey, the trade sector that comprises wholesale and retail grew by 4.8 per cent to Rs 14.79 lakh crore (Rs 14.79 trillion) in 2012-13, accounted for 15.8 per cent share in the gross domestic product.
'Not paying workers enough will end up being self-destructive or harmful for the corporate sector itself.'
An increase in government spending on the healthcare sector - from the current 1 per cent to 2.5-3 per cent of GDP - as envisaged in the National Health Policy 2017 could reduce out-of-pocket expenditures, as per the Economic Survey 2020-21. The rise in public spending can lead to a reduction in expenditures from 65 per cent to 30 per cent of overall healthcare spend, it noted. The Economic Survey said that for the country to effectively respond to future pandemics, the country's health infrastructure needs to be agile. Given its potential to provide healthcare access in remote areas, telemedicine needs to be harnessed to the fullest by especially investing in internet connectivity and health infrastructure, it added.
'The fiscal deficit target of 3.9 per cent of GDP seems achievable.'
62 per cent of respondents across various demographics, including villages, towns, and cities, perceived a greater difficulty in securing employment compared to the previous five years, shows pre-poll survey by Centre for Study of Developing Societies.
The share of rent in consumption expenditure has risen to 6.58%, according to the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey 2023-2024. This is the highest it has been in surveys going back to the turn of the millennium.
India's Parliament is set to begin its Budget session on Friday, with opposition parties poised to demand a discussion on the alleged mismanagement of the Maha Kumbh festival in Prayagraj, where 30 pilgrims died in a stampede. The opposition also accused the government of politicising parliamentary committees and pushing its agenda through its majority. The session will start with President Droupadi Murmu addressing both houses of Parliament. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Union Budget on Saturday for the eighth consecutive time.
India's primary deficit (Centre and states) for FY21 is assumed to be 6.8 per cent of GDP, according to the Economic Survey tabled in Parliament on Friday. It said the Covid-19 pandemic has created a significant negative shock to demand. Active fiscal policy -- one that recognises that fiscal multipliers are disproportionately higher during economic crises than during economic booms -- can ensure that the full benefit of seminal economic reforms is reaped by limiting potential damage to productive capacity.
Monetary Policy- Easing expected to happen later this financial year.
'There's a misconception that all Rs 1 lakh crore will be spent immediately, leading to higher consumption of FMCG goods, travel, and vehicle purchases.' 'While some of this money will go toward consumption, not all of it will.' 'The impact depends on where people deploy their savings.'
'Obesity, especially central obesity and increased visceral fat due to physical inactivity, along with the consumption of high-calorie, high-fat, and high-sugar diets, are major contributing factors.'
The government today extended the tenure of Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Virmani by three months on a temporary basis, said a finance ministry spokesperson. His current two-year term came to an end on Tuesday.
Inflation has reappeared as a global issue in both advanced and emerging economies and India needs to be wary of "imported inflation", especially due to high oil prices, according to the Economic Survey 2021-22 released on Monday. "Inflation has reappeared as a global issue in both advanced and emerging economies. "India's Consumer Price Index inflation stood at 5.6 per cent YoY in December 2021 which is within the targeted tolerance band," the survey report presented in the Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman noted.
The government should cut customs duties and streamline export promotion schemes and pay special attention to infrastructure to overcome the contracting exports on account of recession in India's major trading partners, the Economic Survey said.
India ranks lower than most BRICS nations in terms of innovation.
The 2005-06 Survey tabled in Parliament said the Indian industry needed to be unburdened from high level of taxes and distortive exemptions that provided perverse incentives.
The birth anniversary of Dr Bhimrao Ramji Ambedkar, whose political influence has surged with the passage of time, on Monday was marked by bitter trading of charges between the ruling BJP and opposition parties as they fought for his legacy.
In a significant move, state-run oil producer Oil India Limited (OIL) has finished drilling its first well in the Andaman sea while Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has just started drilling operations in the area, said officials.
The substantially increased economic dualism may exert lasting negative influences which could include a reduced potential for economic growth; the persistence of a very weak employment and poverty situation; rising social and political discord; and heightened vulnerability to geopolitical challenges, cautions Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
The government has to specify what it intends to do with caste census data. It will be closely tracked if the government would simultaneously move towards removing the present 50% bar on reservations using means which are permitted in law. If this is not done, the entire exercise will become meaningless and could boomerang on the BJP, observes Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay.
The Survey says that present skilled workforce in India is only 2%.
If as critics point out, the environmental impact assessment study was commissioned only after the auction process got underway with not all the stakeholders getting to know of it, then the government has already compromised the trust it could have enjoyed with Kerala's public including its coastal communities, points out Shyam G Menon.
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